Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 0.045457 0.052332 0.059455 0.067352 0.075830 0.084627 0.094418
2025-06-29 0.036100 0.046437 0.057795 0.071036 0.085898 0.101928 0.120392
2025-07-06 0.028273 0.040283 0.054179 0.071063 0.090678 0.112442 0.138125
2025-07-13 0.025943 0.039836 0.056507 0.077331 0.102061 0.129984 0.163416
2025-07-20 0.020107 0.034166 0.051865 0.074743 0.102636 0.134774 0.173890
2025-07-27 0.018124 0.033132 0.052665 0.078496 0.110524 0.147895 0.193837
2025-08-03 0.015397 0.030682 0.051348 0.079370 0.114742 0.156561 0.208502
2025-08-10 0.012832 0.028086 0.049554 0.079401 0.117741 0.163642 0.221203
2025-08-17 0.010243 0.025050 0.046858 0.078015 0.118777 0.168212 0.230810
2025-08-24 0.007403 0.021082 0.042463 0.074048 0.116281 0.168271 0.234841
2025-08-31 0.005471 0.018249 0.039416 0.071661 0.115615 0.170426 0.241273
2025-09-07 0.004268 0.016501 0.037829 0.071159 0.117304 0.175435 0.251125
2025-09-14 0.003133 0.014718 0.036231 0.070866 0.119665 0.181835 0.263437
2025-09-21 0.002828 0.014777 0.037703 0.075155 0.128368 0.196526 0.286323
2025-09-28 0.002019 0.013295 0.036409 0.075254 0.131334 0.203881 0.300126
2025-10-05 0.002073 0.014199 0.039326 0.081742 0.143126 0.222656 0.328273
2025-10-12 0.001202 0.011932 0.036337 0.079070 0.142148 0.224864 0.335628
2025-10-19 0.001052 0.011969 0.037581 0.082947 0.150318 0.238986 0.358015
2025-10-26 0.000723 0.011088 0.036972 0.083850 0.154270 0.247587 0.373438
2025-11-02 0.000431 0.010026 0.035870 0.083882 0.156933 0.254468 0.386673
2025-11-09 0.000183 0.008660 0.033948 0.082450 0.157411 0.258404 0.396120
2025-11-16 0.000021 0.006781 0.030563 0.078352 0.153845 0.256825 0.398399
2025-11-23 NaN 0.005505 0.028252 0.075884 0.152535 0.258174 0.404371